Based on assumptions described in the “System Description” part, and considering a perfect foresight, the model shows that achieving carbon neutrality in 2050 is feasible, with minimal unmet demand (“Energy Not Served”) leading to an energy cost of €91.2/MWh in average. However, it requires a large amount of CH4 and H2 imports to cover the demand. In total, 183.8 TWh of molecules are imported. 97.8% of hydrogen is imported because of the limited renewable electricity available for hydrogen production in Belgium. The remaining fraction of hydrogen is produced in the COASTAL cluster, converting electricity generated from offshore wind turbines and solar PV from the INLAND cluster.
Both offshore and onshore wind energy are deployed at their maximum potential with capacity factors (after curtailment) of 22.6% and 38.2% respectively. Carbon neutrality is reached without fully exploiting the solar PV potential, due to its lower capacity factor of 11.6% (after curtailment) and the limit on the power grid capacity. The biomethane production potential is fully deployed.
Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Post-Combustion Carbon Capture (PCCC) are required to attain carbon neutrality. Post-Combustion Carbon Capture (PCCC) is deployed at almost all CCGTs and SMR facilities. The total system cost stands at €20.7 billion per year, equivalent to an average energy cost of €91.2/MWh.
The detailed results of the Base Case are presented in the following sections:
- Energy Balances: balance of input (production, import, conversion output) and output (final demand, export, conversion input) for electricity, hydrogen and methane – per year, month, day or hour;
- Capacities: for each technology related to the production, transport, storage and conversion of electricity, hydrogen and methane, capacity to install in the optimal energy system;
- CO2 Balance: balance of CO2 emissions (methane used for final consumption and power plants)- and CO2 withdrawals (carbon capture, compensation for biomethane);
- Cost Overview: annualized cost for each technology related to the production, transport, storage and conversion of electricity, hydrogen, methane and CO2; this annualized cost has to be considered as the cost to pay for each year considering the investment cost, the expected lifetime and the cost of capital;
- Energy Storage: for each storage technology of electricity, hydrogen and methane, storage filling level hour by hour;
- Marginal Costs: electricity, methane and hydrogen cost/price hour by hour in a perfect market where the marginal supply balances the marginal demand; for CO2 it provides a yearly abatement cost.